Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review, July 15: Raw Material Costs Provide Bottom Support, Demand Remains Weak in Consolidation

Monoammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on July 15, the domestic monoammonium phosphate 55% powder index stood at 4,423.75, down 0.25% from the previous working day; the 55% granular index stood at 4,450.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 58% powder index stood at 4,710.00, flat from the previous working day.

Monoammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market operated weakly. On the enterprise side, most plants were still executing previous orders. Market prices edged lower, raw material prices remained high, traders’ mentality remained firm, and actual transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

On the market side, current sentiment is characterized by sellers remaining firm but constrained, buyers staying cautious and watchful, and traders holding goods while waiting for further price increases.

On the demand side, downstream compound fertilizer plants are currently operating at low loads. Some enterprises have already completed part of their raw material procurement, while willingness to purchase at high prices remains weak. Actual procurement is mainly limited to small-volume need-based purchases, with sentiment relatively cautious.

On the raw material side, the U.S.-Iran conflict continued to expand. Both sides indicated a return to wartime status, and both again claimed mutual blockades around the Strait of Hormuz. This provided cost and sentiment support to the domestic sulfur market. Domestic sulfur prices moved higher at elevated levels, while port inventories remained low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, phosphate rock prices remained firm at high levels, and cost-side pressure remained strong.

Overall, supported by costs and pending orders, the monoammonium phosphate market is expected to continue consolidation in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn preparation, and the impact of geopolitical developments on cost transmission.

Diammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on July 15, the domestic mainstream diammonium phosphate 64% granular index stood at 4,571.67, flat from the previous working day; the 60% brown index stood at 4,350.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 57% content index stood at 4,432.50, flat from the previous working day.

Diammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, the domestic diammonium phosphate market continued to operate steadily at high levels. On the enterprise side, some producers mainly focused on shipping previous pending orders, with no significant changes in market prices. Raw material prices continued to rise, market sentiment toward holding prices firm remained strong, and actual transactions continued to be negotiated.

On the market side, wait-and-see sentiment remained strong.

On the demand side, performance remained persistently sluggish. Demand is still in the traditional fertilizer-use gap period, and domestic autumn sowing preparation has not yet started on a concentrated basis. Downstream compound fertilizer plants are mostly operating at low rates, with procurement limited to small-volume daily rigid-demand replenishment. Grassroots distributors remain strongly wait-and-see, and overall trading activity is stagnant and relatively light.

On the raw material side, the U.S.-Iran conflict continued to expand. Both sides indicated a return to wartime status, and both again claimed mutual blockades around the Strait of Hormuz. This provided cost and sentiment support to the domestic sulfur market. Domestic sulfur prices moved higher at elevated levels, while port inventories remained low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained firm at high levels. High raw material prices continued to increase cost pressure, providing strong support to the market.

Overall, the diammonium phosphate market is expected to continue high-level consolidation in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to raw material price changes, downstream demand follow-up, and later export policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices

According to FDD data, on July 15, the domestic Zhenjiang Port granular sulfur price stood at 9,200.00, flat from the previous working day; Dafeng Port granular sulfur stood at 9,180.00, flat from the previous working day; Zhenjiang Port powder/block sulfur stood at 9,150.00, flat from the previous working day; Dafeng Port powder/block sulfur stood at 9,130.00, flat from the previous working day; East China solid sulfur stood at 9,030.00, flat from the previous working day; and East China liquid sulfur stood at 9,050.00, up 0.78% from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, the domestic sulfur market continued to operate firmly at high levels, with regional divergence and upward movement. The core market driver came from external supply disruptions caused by the continued escalation of U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions, combined with support from downstream rigid demand. Overall trading sentiment continued to strengthen.

The U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation remains tense. Shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have increased, international sulfur supply-chain stability has come under pressure, and uncertainty around overseas supply has intensified further. This has provided strong geopolitical premium support to domestic sulfur spot prices.

By segment, the liquid sulfur market performed the strongest. In Shandong, liquid sulfur spot auction prices continued to rise, the transaction center moved steadily higher, and market purchasing sentiment was active. In Northwest China, the market continued its upward trend, industrial and trading enterprises’ procurement enthusiasm improved significantly, and distant downstream enterprises also participated in regional auctions, further driving market demand. Mainstream transaction ranges continued to move higher. In Northeast China, the liquid sulfur market was relatively stable, with prices remaining steady and limited regional volatility.

For imported granular sulfur, prices edged higher yesterday, and spot transaction volume was acceptable. Today, port offers for imported cargoes remained stable at high levels. Trading showed a pattern of “stable prices but light volume,” with most downstream buyers staying on the sidelines and limited willingness to purchase proactively.

Domestic solid sulfur also followed higher. Procurement interest for Northwest domestic cargoes continued to rise, and prices maintained an upward trend, becoming the main support point for the domestic solid sulfur market.

Overall, the current market shows a differentiated pattern: liquid sulfur is strong, solid sulfur is stable, major producing regions are seeing notable gains, and some local regions are stable. Downstream caprolactam, titanium dioxide, fluorochemical and other industries continue to follow up based on rigid demand, effectively supporting the spot market.

In the short term, supported by the dual factors of geopolitical risk premium and downstream rigid demand, the domestic sulfur market is expected to remain firm at high levels. Prices across regions are likely to maintain a relatively strong trend, with no clear expectation of a pullback for now. Continued escalation of the U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict remains the core factor dominating the market. Strait shipping risks and uncertainty over overseas cargo arrivals will continue to influence market sentiment. Holders have a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and bottom support for spot prices remains solid.

Overall, the short-term market’s firm pattern has been established, and prices are likely to maintain high-level volatile upward movement. Going forward, caution is needed regarding the risk of a market correction if geopolitical tensions ease or demand follow-up weakens.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates

July 15: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder was quoted at around RMB 4,500-4,530/tonne delivered, with quotations lowered.

July 15: In the Northeast MAP market, 55% powder was quoted at around RMB 4,250-4,250/tonne delivered, with quotations stable.

July 15: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder was quoted at around RMB 4,480-4,530/tonne delivered, with quotations lowered.

July 15: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream ex-factory prices for 55% powder were around RMB 4,200-4,450/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 15: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder was quoted at around RMB 4,520-4,500/tonne delivered, with quotations stable.

July 15: In the Shandong MAP market, delivered quotations for 55% powder were around RMB 4,500-4,500/tonne, with quotations lowered.

July 15: In the Sichuan MAP market, delivered quotations for 55% powder were around RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 15: In the Yunnan MAP market, ex-factory prices for 55% powder were around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 15: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 15: In Northeast China, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 15: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup quotations were RMB 4,420-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 15: In Hubei, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 15: In Shandong, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-warehouse quotations were RMB 4,900-4,980/tonne, with quotations stable; 57% self-pickup station quotations were RMB 4,450-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.