Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review, July 21: Costs and Demand Continue to Compete, Phosphate Fertilizer Market Remains in a High-Level Stalemate

MAP Price Index

According to FDD data calculations, on July 21, China’s domestic 55% powder MAP index was 4,423.75, flat from the previous working day; the 55% granular MAP index was 4,450.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 58% powder MAP index was 4,710.00, flat from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, China’s domestic MAP market operated steadily.

On the enterprise side, most plants are still executing previous orders. Raw material prices remain elevated, traders continue to hold firm sentiment, and actual transactions are negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

On the market side, current sentiment is characterized by sellers holding firm but under pressure, buyers remaining cautious and wait-and-see, and traders reluctant to sell while waiting for prices to rise.

On the demand side, some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have already completed partial raw material stocking. Willingness to purchase at high prices is weak, and actual procurement is mainly limited to small volumes for need-based demand, with sentiment remaining cautious.

On the raw material side, according to foreign media reports, mediators in the Iran-U.S. negotiations have proposed a plan to Iran aimed at easing the current situation. The proposal recommends a 10-day ceasefire in an effort to restore implementation of the memorandum of understanding reached by Iran and the U.S. last month. Affected by this, domestic sulfur prices today fluctuated narrowly at high levels, with divergent trends, while port inventories continued to run at low levels. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained high and stable, keeping cost-side pressure strong.

Overall, supported by high raw material costs, the MAP market is expected to continue operating at high levels in the short term. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price trends, the pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn stocking, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to the cost side.

Specific regional market prices are as follows:

DAP Price Index

According to FDD data calculations, on July 21, China’s domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP index was 4,571.67, flat from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP index was 4,350.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 57% DAP index was 4,432.50, flat from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, China’s domestic DAP market remained in a stalemate and operated in consolidation.

On the enterprise side, some producers are mainly focused on shipping previous pending orders. Market prices have not changed significantly, raw material prices continue to rise, price-support sentiment remains strong, and actual transactions are still negotiated.

On the market side, wait-and-see sentiment remains strong.

On the demand side, downstream procurement remains sluggish. Demand is in the traditional off-season for fertilizer use, and domestic autumn planting fertilizer stocking has not yet started on a concentrated basis. Downstream compound fertilizer plants mostly maintain low operating rates, purchasing willingness is generally weak, actual order follow-up is limited, transactions are unable to form effective volume, and overall trading activity remains weak and stagnant.

On the raw material side, according to foreign media reports, mediators in the Iran-U.S. negotiations have proposed a plan to Iran aimed at easing the current situation. The proposal recommends a 10-day ceasefire in an effort to restore implementation of the memorandum of understanding reached by Iran and the U.S. last month. Affected by this, domestic sulfur prices today fluctuated narrowly at high levels, with divergent trends, while port inventories continued to run at low levels. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained high and stable. Raw material costs remain elevated, cost pressure continues to intensify, and this provides strong support to the market.

Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue operating in consolidation in the short term. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price changes, downstream demand follow-up, and later export policy adjustments.

Specific regional market prices are as follows:

Sulfur Market Prices

According to FDD data calculations, on July 21, domestic Zhenjiang Port granular sulfur was priced at 9,180.00, up 0.22% from the previous working day; Dafeng Port granular sulfur was priced at 9,160.00, up 0.22% from the previous working day; Zhenjiang Port powder/block sulfur was priced at 9,130.00, up 0.22% from the previous working day; Dafeng Port powder/block sulfur was priced at 9,110.00, up 0.22% from the previous working day; East China solid sulfur was priced at 9,300.00, up 2.99% from the previous working day; and East China liquid sulfur was priced at 9,365.00, up 2.41% from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, China’s domestic sulfur market as a whole showed a high-level stalemate and narrow-range fluctuation pattern. The tug of war between bullish and bearish factors remained complicated, and overall trading was relatively light.

Internationally, Middle East geopolitical developments continue to disturb the market. Stability of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, while the circulation and arrival pace of overseas sulfur cargoes remain variable. This continues to provide bottom support for domestic sulfur prices, keeping overall market prices at high levels.

In the domestic spot market, imported granular sulfur prices edged down yesterday, generating inertia-driven wait-and-see sentiment and leading the market into a phased downward consolidation. Regional trends diverged clearly. Shandong liquid sulfur prices retreated from high levels, the transaction atmosphere was weak, and several cargo auctions failed to conclude. Prices for domestic solid sulfur in Northwest China remained firm and elevated, long-distance procurement demand recovered somewhat, and transaction performance was relatively stable. In Northeast China, liquid sulfur prices rose against the trend, showing strong regional independence.

Today, port market trading was quiet. Morning offers were generally stable, while buyers held a strong wait-and-see attitude and generally expected low-priced cargoes to enter the market. After earlier attempts to source low-priced cargoes failed, actual transactions gradually appeared, driving a slight rebound in the market center.

The current core contradiction in the market is clear: supply-side support from geopolitical risks is being clearly offset by weak demand under high prices. Persistently elevated sulfur prices have sharply suppressed downstream purchasing willingness. Terminal buyers are generally cautious, mostly maintaining just-in-time procurement for rigid demand, with no concentrated replenishment. Negotiation differences in the market remain large, and the stalemate between industrial users and traders continues.

In the short term, the sulfur market is likely to continue fluctuating at high levels with regional divergence, while momentum for unilateral rises or falls is insufficient. On one hand, repeated Middle East geopolitical disruptions and uncertainty in overseas sulfur supply and logistics continue to limit the pace of imported cargo replenishment, providing solid support for market prices and leaving very limited room for a deep decline. On the other hand, weak downstream demand is difficult to improve quickly. High-priced cargoes continue to suppress terminal purchasing enthusiasm, transactions are difficult to expand, and there is no momentum for a sharp upward surge. The market is expected to remain rangebound in consolidation. Follow-up attention should focus on port cargo transaction dynamics, liquid sulfur market trends, and marginal changes in geopolitical developments, while short-term market sentiment is likely to fluctuate repeatedly.

Specific regional market prices are as follows:

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates

July 21: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,500-4,530/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 21: In the Northeast MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,250-4,250/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 21: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,480-4,530/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 21: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream 55% powder ex-factory prices were around RMB 4,200-4,450/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 21: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,520-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 21: In the Shandong MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,500-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 21: In the Sichuan MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 21: In the Yunnan MAP market, 55% powder ex-factory prices were around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 21: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 21: In Northeast China, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 21: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup prices were RMB 4,420-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 21: In Hubei, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 21: In Shandong, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-warehouse prices were RMB 4,900-4,980/tonne, with quotations stable; 57% DAP self-pickup station prices were RMB 4,450-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.