Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review, July 22: Cost Support Holds the Market Up, Phosphate Fertilizer Continues to Consolidate

MAP Price Index

According to FDD data calculations, on July 22, China’s domestic 55% powder MAP index was 4,423.75, flat from the previous working day; the 55% granular MAP index was 4,450.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 58% powder MAP index was 4,710.00, flat from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, China’s domestic MAP market remained at high levels.

On the enterprise side, most plants are still executing previous orders. Raw material prices remain elevated, traders continue to hold firm sentiment, and actual transactions are negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

On the market side, current sentiment is characterized by sellers holding firm but under pressure, buyers remaining cautious and wait-and-see, and traders reluctant to sell while waiting for prices to rise.

On the demand side, some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have already completed partial raw material stocking. Willingness to purchase at high prices is weak, and actual procurement is mainly limited to small volumes for need-based demand, with sentiment remaining cautious.

On the raw material side, reports indicate that Iran has floated a 10-day ceasefire proposal. However, Trump said Iran must “pay a price” and openly stated that he currently has no intention of meeting or negotiating with Iran. The outlook for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains highly uncertain, and potential shipping disruptions continue to provide geopolitical sentiment support for sulfur. Domestic sulfur prices fluctuated narrowly at high levels today, while port inventories continued to run at low levels. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained high and stable, keeping cost-side pressure strong.

Overall, supported by high raw material costs, the MAP market is expected to continue operating at high levels in the short term. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price trends, the pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn stocking, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to the cost side.

Specific regional market prices are as follows:

DAP Price Index

According to FDD data calculations, on July 22, China’s domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP index was 4,571.67, flat from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP index was 4,350.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 57% DAP index was 4,432.50, flat from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, China’s domestic DAP market remained in consolidation.

On the enterprise side, some producers are mainly focused on shipping previous pending orders. Market prices have not changed significantly, raw material prices continue to rise, price-support sentiment remains strong, and actual transactions are still negotiated.

On the market side, wait-and-see sentiment remains strong.

On the demand side, downstream procurement remains sluggish. Downstream compound fertilizer plants mostly maintain low operating rates, purchasing willingness is generally weak, and only scattered inquiries are seen. Actual order follow-up is limited, transactions are difficult to expand meaningfully, and overall trading activity remains subdued.

On the raw material side, reports indicate that Iran has floated a 10-day ceasefire proposal. However, Trump said Iran must “pay a price” and openly stated that he currently has no intention of meeting or negotiating with Iran. The outlook for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains highly uncertain, and potential shipping disruptions continue to provide geopolitical sentiment support for sulfur. Domestic sulfur prices fluctuated narrowly at high levels today, while port inventories continued to run at low levels. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained high and stable. Raw material costs remain elevated, cost pressure continues to intensify, and this provides strong support to the market.

Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue operating in consolidation in the short term. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price changes, downstream demand follow-up, and later export policy adjustments.

Specific regional market prices are as follows:

Sulfur Market Prices

According to FDD data calculations, on July 22, domestic Zhenjiang Port granular sulfur was priced at 9,180.00, flat from the previous working day; Dafeng Port granular sulfur was priced at 9,160.00, flat from the previous working day; Zhenjiang Port powder/block sulfur was priced at 9,130.00, flat from the previous working day; Dafeng Port powder/block sulfur was priced at 9,110.00, flat from the previous working day; East China solid sulfur was priced at 9,300.00, flat from the previous working day; and East China liquid sulfur was priced at 9,365.00, flat from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, China’s domestic sulfur market remained at high-level volatility. Middle East geopolitical tensions continued to recur, and the stability of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains in doubt. Potential disruption to global offshore sulfur supply continues to support market sentiment, and geopolitical supply concerns remain the key factor keeping the market elevated.

At present, the market lacks clear directional news. Most participants remain on the sidelines, with a clear split in sentiment between traders and industrial users. Price gaps remain hard to reconcile, trading lacks meaningful incremental volume, and the market is moving sideways in consolidation.

Buyers are mostly waiting, hoping to gain negotiation leverage. Sellers continue to hold firm, with no willingness to lower offers proactively. Port negotiations remain limited, and prices are moving laterally.

Most participants are holding back from entering the market, while a small amount of demand is still trying to source low-priced cargoes. This is clearly mismatched with sellers’ price expectations, leaving the stalemate between industrial and trading participants difficult to break.

By region, port imports of granular sulfur were generally quiet. Liquid sulfur showed clear regional divergence: after earlier pullback, Shandong liquid sulfur trading improved for a time, but today the trend weakened again. Refinery auction prices moved lower, downstream buyers maintained only rigid-demand procurement, and concentrated replenishment willingness was insufficient, leaving upward momentum weak. Northwest liquid sulfur auction prices remained firm, with more long-distance procurement, low-end offers stable, and high-end quotes edging up slightly. Northeast liquid sulfur prices were stable.

The market is clearly being pulled in opposite directions. On one hand, geopolitical conflict could disrupt shipping lanes at any time, and the market continues to worry that Middle Eastern cargo outflows may slow and arrivals may be delayed, supporting holders’ confidence in keeping prices firm. On the other hand, downstream consumption in sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizer has not shown sustained volume growth, leaving demand-side pressure strong. Without large-scale concentrated replenishment, prices are hard to push higher, and traders are becoming more cautious.

In the short term, the sulfur market is likely to continue fluctuating at high levels and remain generally steady. Geopolitical risk still carries substantial uncertainty. The Strait of Hormuz is a key global sulfur shipping route, and if tensions rise again and shipping is disrupted, risk-off sentiment could quickly lift prices. Follow-up attention should focus on Middle East geopolitical developments, ship traffic through the strait, port arrival pace, refinery auction performance in different regions, and operating rates of downstream phosphate fertilizer plants.

Specific regional market prices are as follows:

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates

July 22: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,500-4,530/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 22: In the Northeast MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,250-4,250/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 22: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,480-4,530/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 22: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream 55% powder ex-factory prices were around RMB 4,200-4,450/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 22: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,520-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 22: In the Shandong MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,500-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 22: In the Sichuan MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 22: In the Yunnan MAP market, 55% powder ex-factory prices were around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 22: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 22: In Northeast China, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 22: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup prices were RMB 4,420-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 22: In Hubei, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 22: In Shandong, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-warehouse prices were RMB 4,900-4,980/tonne, with quotations stable; 57% DAP self-pickup station prices were RMB 4,450-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.