Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Market Demand Slows, Prices Undergoing Adjustment

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data: On November 29, the domestic 55% powder MAP index stood at 3483.75, stable; the 55% granule index was 3400.00, stable; and the 58% powder index was 3683.33, stable.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, domestic MAP market prices remained stable. From the factory perspective, the pace of new orders has slowed, mainly fulfilling pre-received orders. The support from pending orders is gradually weakening, and factories are inclined to slightly reduce prices to attract orders. For traders, while profit-taking leads to a slight price reduction, actual transactions remain negotiable. On the supply side, MAP production has decreased, with the current operating rate around 58%, and plant operational loads remain high. From the demand perspective, downstream compound fertilizer companies show less enthusiasm in raw material procurement, with demand slowing and a continued wait-and-see attitude. In terms of raw materials, prices for sulfur and phosphate rock remain stable, while the price of synthetic ammonia continues to adjust downwards slightly, leading to a stalemate in raw material prices. Overall, the MAP market is experiencing a narrow decline. The short-term market supply tightness has not improved, and the weakening of pending favorable factors suggests that there is still room for price declines in the MAP market in the short term.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data: On November 29, the domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP index was 3880.00, stable; the 60% brown index was 3670.00, stable; and the 57% content index was 3610.00, stable.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, domestic DAP market prices continue to stabilize at high levels. Companies, guided by price stabilization and supply guarantee policies, are receiving a small number of orders below market prices. For traders, the available supply is limited, and high prices continue with the limited available stock, leading to firm trader quotes. On the supply side, the winter storage market remains tight, with the DAP industry operating rate around 49.5%. Demand-wise, the downstream mindset is predominantly watchful, with poor purchasing enthusiasm and average market transactions. In the market, downstream continues to inquire at low prices, but actual purchases are mostly on a wait-and-see basis, and overall market purchasing enthusiasm remains low. Regarding raw materials, the price of sulfur has slightly increased, phosphate rock prices are stable, and synthetic ammonia prices continue to slide, leading to downward cost adjustments. In summary, the current DAP market still faces a shortage of supply and is supported by favorable factors. It is expected that DAP prices will continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term.