Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly: Costs and Demand Remain in a Tug of War, Phosphate Fertilizer Market Stays in a High-Level Stalemate (20260724)

01.Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis

1.1 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Price Analysis

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP):

This week, China’s domestic MAP market operated steadily with a weak bias.Cost side, the U.S.-Iran geopolitical confrontation continued to intensify. The outlook for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains highly uncertain, and potential shipping disruptions continued to provide geopolitical sentiment support for sulfur. Domestic sulfur prices fluctuated at high levels in consolidation, while port inventories continued to run at low levels. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained high and stable. With multiple raw material prices staying elevated, MAP producers continued to face relatively heavy cost pressure.Demand side, some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have already completed part of their raw material stocking. Willingness to purchase at high prices is weak, and actual procurement is mainly limited to small volumes for need-based demand, with sentiment remaining cautious.Overall, supported by high costs, the MAP market is expected to continue weak consolidation in the short term. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price trends, the pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn stocking, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to the cost side.

According to FDD data calculations: this week, the average 55% powder MAP price index was 4,428.25, down 5.25 from last week, a week-on-week decrease of 0.12%; the average 55% granular MAP price index was 4,450.00, flat from last week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.00%; the average 58% powder MAP price index was 4,710.00, flat from last week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.00%.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP):

       This week, China’s domestic DAP market operated in a stalemate and consolidation.Cost side, the U.S.-Iran geopolitical confrontation continued to intensify. The outlook for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains highly uncertain, and potential shipping disruptions continued to provide geopolitical sentiment support for sulfur. Domestic sulfur prices fluctuated at high levels in consolidation, while port inventories continued to run at low levels. The sulfuric acid market operated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices also remained high. Multiple raw material prices remained elevated, providing solid support for market prices.Demand side, downstream procurement remained sluggish. Downstream compound fertilizer plants mostly maintained low operating rates, purchasing willingness was generally weak, and downstream buyers only made scattered inquiries. Actual order follow-up was relatively limited, overall trading activity was low, and transactions were unable to form effective volume.Overall, this week, the DAP market relied on high costs to hold the price floor, but weak off-season demand left the market without upward momentum. The market remained in a prolonged stalemate with quoted prices but limited actual transactions.

According to FDD data calculations: this week, the average 64% granular DAP price index was 4,571.67, flat from last week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.00%; the average 60% brown DAP price index was 4,350.00, flat from last week; the average 57% DAP price index was 4,432.50, flat from last week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.00%.

02. Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operating Conditions

2.1 Domestic MAP Industry Operating Conditions

According to FDD statistics: this week, the domestic MAP industry operating rate was approximately 55.20%, down 1.30 percentage points from last week and down 4.17 percentage points year on year. The MAP industry operating rate declined slightly during the week and was lower than the same period last year.

2.2 Domestic DAP Industry Operating Conditions

According to FDD statistics: this week, the domestic DAP industry operating rate was approximately 38.02%, up 2.06 percentage points from last week and down 19.49 percentage points year on year. The DAP industry operating rate rose during the week but remained lower than the same period last year.

03. Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Output Trends

3.1 Domestic MAP Weekly Output Trend

According to FDD statistics: this week, domestic MAP output was approximately 221,900 tonnes, down 2.33% from last week and down 5.61% year on year. Domestic MAP weekly output decreased during the week and was lower than the same period last year.

3.2 Domestic DAP Weekly Output Trend

According to FDD statistics: this week, domestic DAP output was approximately 184,800 tonnes, up 5.72% from last week and down 31.56% year on year. Domestic DAP weekly output increased during the week but remained lower than the same period last year.

04. Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trends

4.1 Domestic MAP Port Inventory Trend

According to FDD statistics: this week, inventory at major domestic MAP market ports was approximately 0 tonnes, unchanged from last week.

4.2 Domestic DAP Port Inventory Trend

According to FDD statistics: this week, inventory at major domestic DAP market ports was approximately 29,500 tonnes, unchanged from last week.

05. Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook

MAP: 

Looking ahead, the current MAP market is in a high-level stalemate, with the tug of war between costs and demand continuing to deepen. On the cost side, Middle East shipping route risks and normalized phosphate rock resource control remain in place. Imported sulfur circulation is disrupted, phosphate rock remains high and stable, and enterprises operating at a loss have strong willingness to hold prices firm. Downside room for prices is limited. However, the momentum for sulfur to move further higher has weakened, and its marginal upward push is slowing. On the supply side, operating levels remain relatively high, supply is relatively ample, and export channels have not yet recovered. Cargo digestion mainly depends on domestic demand, and supply pressure persists. On the demand side, the market is in the transition window from the agricultural off-season to autumn fertilizer preparation. Compound fertilizer operating rates are low, and procurement is mainly small-volume need-based purchases. Later, demand for winter wheat base fertilizer stocking is expected to drive procurement recovery, but acceptance of high prices remains limited, and the pace of demand release is still uncertain. Overall, the main theme remains the tug of war between rigid cost support, restricted exports, and wait-and-see demand. In the short term, the market is expected to continue high-level consolidation. Autumn fertilizer preparation may provide a phased boost later, but export policy, stocking pace, and raw material trends still need continuous tracking.

DAP:

Looking ahead, the DAP market may continue its stalemate and consolidation pattern in the short term. On the cost side, affected by Middle East geopolitical disruptions, sulfur supply is expected to tighten. High raw material prices continue to provide bottom support for finished product prices, while producers remain under deep cost pressure and show weak willingness to make concessions for sales. On the demand side, the market is currently in a seasonal gap period. Downstream compound fertilizer plants maintain low-load operation, channel distributors hold strong wait-and-see sentiment, and only scattered rigid-demand procurement is maintained. Large-scale stocking has not yet started, terminal acceptance is limited in a high-price environment, and it is difficult to drive concentrated transaction volume. On the supply side, industry operating flexibility is limited by production losses, and incremental spot supply in circulation is limited. Follow-up attention should focus on changes in export-related policy windows. If external sales channels adjust, domestic cargo flows may change. Continued tracking is needed for shipping dynamics through the Strait of Hormuz, upstream sulfur trends, the progress of domestic autumn fertilizer stocking, and export-related news.

06. Sulfur Market Analysis

6.1 Sulfur Market Price Analysis

This week, China’s domestic sulfur market fluctuated at high levels in consolidation, with clear regional divergence. On the geopolitical side, the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz came under pressure, and Middle Eastern sulfur exports faced disruptions. Stronger external markets boosted some markets in Northeast and Northwest China. Rising downstream procurement expectations pushed up prices for high-quality cargoes, while cargoes with weaker location and quality faced greater resistance to price increases. The port market saw repeated tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors, and prices moved back and forth during the week. Shandong liquid sulfur gradually retreated from high levels, as high prices suppressed terminal procurement, with only a brief round of rigid-demand replenishment after prices corrected. In East China, plant maintenance continued, and prices fluctuated narrowly with support from rigid demand. Current market supply remains generally tight, but high raw material prices continue to suppress downstream procurement willingness. Large enterprises rely on earlier long-term contracts to secure supply, while small and medium-sized producers only purchase small volumes to maintain low operating loads. Some downstream players adjusted production structures to avoid losses, and overall bulk transactions in the market were limited. Looking ahead, the sulfur market is expected to remain in a high-level stalemate in the short term. Geopolitical risks continue to support the market, and expectations of tighter Middle Eastern cargo outflows remain for the forward period. However, the effect of high prices suppressing demand continues to build, downstream cash flow is under pressure, willingness for active stocking is difficult to recover, and sustained sharp gains lack demand support. In the medium to long term, the high point of this round of price increases has basically appeared. If shipping through the strait remains obstructed, supply could shrink further, but high raw material prices may also force more downstream plants to reduce operating loads. The market will continue to trade between geopolitical supply risks and shrinking terminal demand, and is likely to remain rangebound. Follow-up attention should focus on freight dynamics through the Strait of Hormuz, the arrival pace of overseas cargoes, and changes in downstream operating rates in phosphate fertilizer and fertilizer sectors.

According to FDD data calculations: on July 24, domestic Zhenjiang Port granular sulfur was priced at 9,185.00, up 0.16% from the previous working day; Dafeng Port granular sulfur was priced at 9,165.00, up 0.16% from the previous working day; Zhenjiang Port powder/block sulfur was priced at 9,135.00, up 0.16% from the previous working day; Dafeng Port powder/block sulfur was priced at 9,115.00, up 0.16% from the previous working day; East China solid sulfur was priced at 9,300.00, flat from the previous working day; East China liquid sulfur was priced at 9,220.00, down 1.55% from the previous working day.

07. Domestic Sulfur Port Inventory Analysis

According to FDD statistics: this week, inventory at major domestic sulfur market ports was approximately 816,600 tonnes, up 65,400 tonnes from last week, a week-on-week increase of 8.71%.

08. Domestic Sulfur Output Analysis

8.1 National Sulfur Output Analysis

This week, China’s sample sulfur output was 188,600 tonnes, with capacity utilization at 44.37%, up 0.11 percentage points from last week.

8.2 East China Sulfur Output Analysis

This week, East China’s sample weekly sulfur output was 24,200 tonnes, flat from last week. Capacity utilization stood at 25.10%, flat from last week. East China’s weekly output accounted for 13% of national total output.

8.3 East China Capacity Utilization

According to FDD statistics: this week, the operating rate of the domestic sulfur industry in East China was approximately 25.10%.

8.4 Solid Sulfur Arrivals

According to FDD statistics: as of this week, the planned arrival volume of imported solid sulfur at major ports nationwide in July is temporarily estimated at 400,000 tonnes.