Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly: Monoammonium Phosphate Market Weakens, Diammonium Phosphate Sees Better Movement of Limited Stocks

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis:

Price Analysis of Phosphate Fertilizers:

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP):

According to Feidoodoo data, this week, the average price index for 55% powdered MAP was 2941.88, down by 125.88 from last week, a 4.10% decrease; the average price index for 55% granular remained steady at 3150.00; the average price index for 58% powdered was 3302.78, down by 130.56, a decrease of 3.80%.

This week, domestic MAP prices continued to trend downwards amid a still lackluster market atmosphere, with continuous price pressures. On the corporate side, companies continued to fulfill pre-received orders, with a gradual reduction in pending shipments to accommodate new orders at adjusted lower prices, but without an improvement in order intake, suggesting further room for price declines. The market remained weak, with a soft trading atmosphere, strong pressure from downstream to lower prices, insufficient follow-up on new orders, and a visibly fatigued market. From a supply perspective, factories faced pressure in taking orders, with increasing inventory pressures and a rise in production cuts due to maintenance, leading to a decline in industry operations. On the demand side, follow-up was poor; the industrial downstream compound fertilizer factories remained cautious, with a decrease in operations and a wait-and-see purchasing attitude, making a short-term improvement in demand unlikely.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP):

According to Feidoodoo data, this week, the average price index for 64% granular DAP was 3843.33, down by 5.83, a decrease of 0.15%; the average price index for 60% brown remained steady at 3460.00; the average price index for 57% DAP was 3482.50, down by 29.58, a decrease of 0.84%.

This week, domestic DAP prices continued a stable but declining trend, with an average atmosphere for moving goods and weak new order transactions. On the corporate side, as spring planting orders neared completion, new order intake was limited, with some companies planning maintenance and a subsequent entry into maintenance status, indicating a downward trend in operations with a tense supply of limited stocks. However, current corporate quotes remained stable, with narrow price adjustments. Market-wise, the atmosphere for moving goods was better this week, with downstream essential replenishment orders following up, and increasing corporate order intake, but overall demand remained limited, leading to fluctuating market conditions. On the supply side, there was a slight increase in DAP industry operations this week, though some units planned maintenance, expecting a decrease in operational rates and reduced supply next week. On the demand side, as the spring planting market concluded, the uptake was mainly minimal essential replenishment; industrial downstream factories slowed their follow-up on raw material purchases, continuing to operate on a just-in-time basis, indicating weak demand.

Operational Status of the Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry:

Operational Rate for Domestic MAP Industry:

According to Feidoodoo statistics: This week, the operational rate for the domestic MAP industry was approximately 51.63%, down by 5.25% from last week, but up by 12.19% year-on-year; although weekly MAP industry operations decreased, they remained higher than the same period last year.

Operational Rate for Domestic DAP Industry:

According to Feidoodoo statistics: This week, the operational rate for the domestic DAP industry was approximately 56.12%, up by 0.21% from last week, and up by 2.22% year-on-year; DAP industry operations increased this week, continuing to be higher than the same period last year.

Weekly Production Trends in the Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry:

Weekly Production Trends for Domestic MAP:

According to Feidoodoo statistics: This week, domestic MAP production was about 201,600 tons, a 9.23% decrease from last week, but a 30.91% increase year-on-year; although weekly MAP production decreased, it remained higher than the same period last year.

Weekly Production Trends for Domestic DAP:

According to Feidoodoo statistics: This week, domestic DAP production was about 270,200 tons, an increase of 0.37% from last week, and a 0.71% increase year-on-year; DAP production slightly increased this week, continuing to be higher than the same period last year.

Trends in Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventories:

Trends in Domestic MAP Port Inventories:

According to Feidoodoo statistics: This week, domestic MAP market main port inventories were about 51,300 tons, steady from last week, but down 48.18% year-on-year.

Trends in Domestic DAP Port Inventories:

According to Feidoodoo statistics: This week, domestic DAP market main port inventories were about 118,100 tons, steady from last week, but down 27.72% year-on-year.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Future Outlook:

MAP: Overall, the current MAP market is experiencing low demand, with limited follow-up on actual orders, sales pressure on production companies, and a noticeable decline in operational load. It is expected that next week, MAP market prices will continue to be largely stable with minor adjustments, amid a weak consolidation.

DAP: Overall, current DAP companies are mostly shipping domestic pending and export orders, with part of the stock slightly tight, insufficient downstream demand follow-up, limited support from the demand side, and a bland market situation expected in the short term. Next week, DAP market prices are expected to continue stable downward adjustments.