Daily Urea Review: Export Policy Relaxed, Market Transactions Improve

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, as of April 15, the small granule urea price index was 2223.18, up 76.23 from last Friday, a week-on-week increase of 3.55%, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.81%.

Urea Futures Market:

Today's urea UR409 contract opened in 2010, reached a high in 2015, a low in 1981, settled in 1994, and closed in 1987. The closing price was up 35 from the last trading day, marking a 1.79% increase, with daily fluctuations ranging from 1981 to 2015. The Shandong area basis for the May contract was 193; today, the May contract saw a reduction of 484 positions, with current holdings at 246218.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, domestic urea market prices increased. Over the weekend, influenced by the relaxation of export policies, market sentiment was boosted, leading to active follow-up purchases by traders and immediate upward adjustments in corporate quotes.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region rose to 2200-2260 yuan/ton. In East China, prices increased to 2170-2220 yuan/ton. In Central China, prices for small and medium granules increased to 2180-2300 yuan/ton, and for large granules to 2180-2220 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2050-2220 yuan/ton. In South China, prices climbed to 2300-2360 yuan/ton. Prices in the Northwest rose to 2190-2200 yuan/ton. Prices in the Southwest remained stable at 2070-2450 yuan/ton.

Factory Perspective:

Over the weekend, transactions in the mainstream regions improved significantly, with an increase in factory sales and support from pending orders, leading most manufacturers to maintain firm pricing intentions. With the relaxation of export policies last weekend, the previously pessimistic sentiment among traders warmed up, and market purchasing enthusiasm increased. However, international prices are still declining, and there is no positive news for domestic exports, making exporting still challenging. On the supply side, an increase in device failures and maintenance has led to a downward trend in daily production, but operations remain at a high level, keeping the supply-demand balance relatively loose in the short term. On the demand side, the agricultural rice-growing areas are appropriately restocking fertilizers, mostly purchasing at lower prices; the operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer factories has stabilized, with demand continuity not strong and essential needs relatively stable, maintaining appropriate follow-up and restocking.

Overall View:

Currently, the urea market is slightly improved due to the relaxation of export policies, but with international prices continuing to decline, the export sector remains weak. It is expected that there will be limited upward movement in urea market prices in the short term.