Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Review: Market Transaction Focus Shifts, Traders Increase Wait-and-See Attitude

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Price Analysis:

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): According to Feidoodoo data, this week, the average price index for 55% powder was 3484.50, a 10.50 decrease week-over-week (0.30% decrease); for 55% granules, the average price index remained stable at 3400.00; for 58% powder, the average price index was 3683.33, a 13.33 increase week-over-week (0.36% increase).

This week, MAP market prices remained largely stable with minor decreases. Most companies paused quoting and operated steadily. Factory-wise, under the support of pending orders, current quotes remained stable. However, the market trading atmosphere was weak, with new order follow-ups slightly insufficient, leading to a downward shift in the transaction focus. Supply-wise, daily production and operational rates slightly increased, slightly easing the tight situation of on-site supplies. Market-wise, MAP prices are still at a high level, but under the influence of export limitations and supply guarantee policies, price movements are expected. Downstream purchases have also slowed, increasing the wait-and-see sentiment. Demand-wise, the Northeast market still has essential needs, but overall purchasing pace has slowed; downstream compound fertilizer companies' purchasing intentions are also weak, waiting for appropriate prices to enter the market. Raw material-wise, sulfur and synthetic ammonia prices are declining, while phosphate rock prices remain high under tight supply, leading to a standoff in raw material support.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): According to Feidoodoo data, this week, the average price index for 64% granules remained stable at 3880.00; for 60% brown, the average price index was 3670.00, a 18.00 decrease week-over-week (0.49% decrease); for 57% DAP, the average price index remained stable at 3610.00.

This week, DAP market prices were adjusting. Company-wise, most businesses are still pausing collections, with mainstream companies receiving a small number of orders, continuing previous quotes. Under the guidance of price stabilization and supply guarantee policies, current company order prices are lower than market prices. Trader-wise, current traders hold limited supplies, continuing high quotes, with firm prices in limited spot situations. Supply-wise, winter storage market supplies remain tight, with the DAP industry's operational rate around 50%. Market-wise, the trading atmosphere is average, with downstream already holding some supplies, leading to a pause in continued purchasing enthusiasm. Demand-wise, essential winter storage market needs still exist, but with a longer storage period, the wait-and-see sentiment is heavy, leading to weakened purchasing enthusiasm and an increase in wait-and-see sentiment after holding a small amount of supplies. Raw material-wise, sulfur and synthetic ammonia prices are declining, while phosphate rock prices remain high under tight supply, leading to a standoff in raw material support.

Market Forecast

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): Overall, current MAP factories are still supported by pending orders, with a slight easing in tight supply and essential downstream needs still existing. However, under the advocacy of supply guarantee and price stabilization policies, the overall market transaction focus has slightly shifted, and traders' wait-and-see sentiment has increased. Next week, the MAP market prices are expected to be largely stable with minor adjustments.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): Overall, the current DAP market sees rising raw material phosphate rock prices, strengthening cost support, but market demand follow-up is slow, with a predominant wait-and-see attitude. Next week, the DAP market prices are expected to be in a standoff.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operational Situation

Domestic Monoammonium Phosphate Industry Operational Situation:

This week, the domestic MAP industry's operational rate was about 62.90%, a 4.98% increase week-over-week, and a 19.43% increase year-over-year; the MAP industry's operational rate has risen within the week, still higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Diammonium Phosphate Industry Operational Situation:

This week, the domestic DAP industry's operational rate was about 50.07%, a 0.81% increase week-over-week, and a 6.81% increase year-over-year; the DAP industry's operational rate slightly rose within the week, still higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Production Trends

Domestic Monoammonium Phosphate Weekly Production Trend:

This week, the domestic MAP production was about 245.6 thousand tons, an 8.58% increase week-over-week, and a 43.12% increase year-over-year; the domestic MAP weekly production has risen, still higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Diammonium Phosphate Weekly Production Trend:

This week, the domestic DAP production was about 251.6 thousand tons, a 1.66% increase week-over-week, and a 16.86% increase year-over-year; the domestic DAP weekly production slightly rose, still higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trends

Domestic Monoammonium Phosphate Port Inventory Trend:

This week, the domestic MAP market's main port inventory was about 35.1 thousand tons, a 22.17% decrease week-over-week, and a 74.27% decrease year-over-year.

Domestic Diammonium Phosphate Port Inventory Trend:

This week, the domestic DAP market's main port inventory was about 247.2 thousand tons, stable week-over-week, and a 23.85% increase year-over-year.