Potassium Chloride: Many market voices, bearish mentality unchanged
June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
Jinlianchuang
3270
Guide
Highlights at a glance
The domestic potassium chloride market remains weak in July due to low demand during the off-season, declining international prices, and increased border trade supply. Prices at northern and southern ports have dropped, with 62% white potassium now around 5,200–5,250 yuan/ton. Small and medium traders face financial pressure, leading some to suspend sales amid tight supply but falling prices. While current port inventories are lower and concentrated among major players, rising arrivals via Manzhouli and China-Europe trains—priced competitively at around 4,650 yuan/ton—are pressuring domestic prices further. Despite limited circulating supply, sustained inflows suggest continued downward trends. Market sentiment remains bearish as weak downstream demand and falling global prices dampen recovery prospects.
Into July, the potassium chloride market continued to run weakly. In the case of entering the off-season of potash fertilizer, the market demand is low, the new supply of border trade is impacted, superimposed on the decline of international potash fertilizer, the domestic market continues to decline, and the sentiment of downstream bottoming continues.
In the current off-season market, the imported potassium chloride market is easy to fall but difficult to rise due to weak demand from compound fertilizer and potassium sulfate producers. The 62% white potassium in northern ports has dropped by 50-100 yuan/ton compared with the previous period, and the mainstream reference is 5250 yuan/ton; the mainstream reference in southern ports is 5200-5250 yuan/ton. Small and medium-sized traders have less supply of goods, but the situation of financial pressure does exist. Some merchants sell at lower prices, but the market is in a downward stage and market transactions are limited.
Recently, there have been many voices in the market: 1. Small and medium-sized traders have run out of supply of goods, and some of them have suspended sales; 2. The continuous arrival of border trade goods has impacted port prices, which will fall in the later period. In these two situations, we can make the following analysis:
1. The current port inventory is around 1.8 million tons, which is lower than the previous period. At present, most of the sources of goods are concentrated in the hands of large traders, and small and medium-sized traders are mainly back-to-back. If the high-end transactions were made some time ago, the value of the sources of goods is high. In a falling market, if you continue to ship, it may cause losses. There are not many circulatable supply sources in the market, and the supply is tight. I feel that the possibility of a sharp decline in the later period is small, so why not temporarily cover the bags and wait for a good opportunity. But it is worth noting that the increase in border trade sources can solve the above problems.
2. In the near future, whether it is Manzhouli port or China-Europe special train, the arrivals have increased, and the arrivals in June will be higher than those in May. However, local demand is sluggish, and many products are sent to other places for sales, which has a certain impact on port prices, especially in the northern region. Cross-border contract prices in June showed that the price of white crystal was US$611/ton, and the price of white powder was US$616/ton. According to this price, the RMB price is around 4,650 yuan/ton, and the current border trade price is 4,750-4,800 yuan/ton. If it continues to be sent to the port, it still has a certain price advantage, then the port price will continue to be pulled down.
The current domestic potash fertilizer market price fall is the general trend. Judging from the current market conditions, the information conveyed is not ideal, and there are many bad news. The demand side is sluggish, and the high-end prices in the international market continue to fall, adding to the pessimism in the market. It is expected that domestic potassium chloride may continue to be in a downward channel, and the bearish mentality remains unchanged.
In the current off-season market, the imported potassium chloride market is easy to fall but difficult to rise due to weak demand from compound fertilizer and potassium sulfate producers. The 62% white potassium in northern ports has dropped by 50-100 yuan/ton compared with the previous period, and the mainstream reference is 5250 yuan/ton; the mainstream reference in southern ports is 5200-5250 yuan/ton. Small and medium-sized traders have less supply of goods, but the situation of financial pressure does exist. Some merchants sell at lower prices, but the market is in a downward stage and market transactions are limited.
Recently, there have been many voices in the market: 1. Small and medium-sized traders have run out of supply of goods, and some of them have suspended sales; 2. The continuous arrival of border trade goods has impacted port prices, which will fall in the later period. In these two situations, we can make the following analysis:
1. The current port inventory is around 1.8 million tons, which is lower than the previous period. At present, most of the sources of goods are concentrated in the hands of large traders, and small and medium-sized traders are mainly back-to-back. If the high-end transactions were made some time ago, the value of the sources of goods is high. In a falling market, if you continue to ship, it may cause losses. There are not many circulatable supply sources in the market, and the supply is tight. I feel that the possibility of a sharp decline in the later period is small, so why not temporarily cover the bags and wait for a good opportunity. But it is worth noting that the increase in border trade sources can solve the above problems.
2. In the near future, whether it is Manzhouli port or China-Europe special train, the arrivals have increased, and the arrivals in June will be higher than those in May. However, local demand is sluggish, and many products are sent to other places for sales, which has a certain impact on port prices, especially in the northern region. Cross-border contract prices in June showed that the price of white crystal was US$611/ton, and the price of white powder was US$616/ton. According to this price, the RMB price is around 4,650 yuan/ton, and the current border trade price is 4,750-4,800 yuan/ton. If it continues to be sent to the port, it still has a certain price advantage, then the port price will continue to be pulled down.
The current domestic potash fertilizer market price fall is the general trend. Judging from the current market conditions, the information conveyed is not ideal, and there are many bad news. The demand side is sluggish, and the high-end prices in the international market continue to fall, adding to the pessimism in the market. It is expected that domestic potassium chloride may continue to be in a downward channel, and the bearish mentality remains unchanged.
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June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
