September 15 International Forex News

September 21, 2026

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U.S. Vice President JD Vance predicts the U.S.-Iran conflict to shift into a significant new phase in coming months. He highlights progress in regaining control of the Strait of Hormuz, with maritime traffic restored to over 50% of normal levels. Current U.S. efforts focus on responding to Iranian attacks and dismantling Iran's nuclear infrastructure, while future actions hinge on Trump’s decisions post-midterm elections and Iran's willingness to negotiate. Separately, market data indicates a 92.4% probability of a Fed rate hike this week, projecting continued financial tightening into October.

Vance Says U.S.-Iran War Will Enter a "Completely Different Phase" in Several Months

September 16: According to the New York Post, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said the U.S.-Iran war would enter "a completely different phase in a few months." He agreed with Trump's view that the conflict could end after the midterm elections.

Vance said shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was recovering and Iran's control over the waterway was weakening, with traffic now restored to more than 50% of normal levels. He said the United States was not currently conducting offensive operations but was responding to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels.

Vance said the U.S.-Iran conflict consisted of two phases. The first phase was aimed at destroying Iran's nuclear program and weakening its conventional military capabilities and ability to project power across the region. The second phase would ensure that Iran could not rebuild those capabilities while maintaining regional stability.

He added that future developments would still depend on whether Trump chose to expand operations after the midterm elections or whether Iran became more willing to reach an agreement.

Probability of a Fed Rate Increase This Week Rises to 92.4%

September 16: According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged in September is 7.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase is 92.4%.

By October, the probability of no change is 4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase is 52%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase is 44%.

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