September 22 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Weaker Cost Support and a Soft, Divergent Sulfur Market

MAP Price Index:

According to FDD data calculations, on September 22, China's 55% powdered MAP index was 3,956.25, down 0.78% from the previous working day. The 55% granular MAP index was 4,300.00, unchanged from the previous working day, while the 58% powdered MAP index was 4,350.00, also unchanged.

MAP Market Analysis:

Today's domestic MAP market was weak. On the producer side, most plants were still executing earlier orders, low-priced offers reappeared and spot transactions were subject to negotiation. On the market side, low-priced offers appeared frequently and inquiry activity improved somewhat. On the demand side, some downstream compound-fertilizer companies saw demand begin to emerge, but procurement remained focused on essential purchases and demand was still relatively weak. On the raw-material side, domestic sulfur prices traded within a narrow range today, sulfur port inventories remained relatively low overall, sulfuric acid prices moved lower, and the phosphate-rock market was mainly stable. Raw-material prices on the cost side all declined but remained high, continuing to provide relatively strong support for producers. Overall, the MAP market is currently characterized by weakening marginal cost support and a sluggish demand recovery. It is expected to remain in weak consolidation in the short term. Attention should remain on raw-material price movements, the pace of autumn fertilizer stockpiling by downstream compound-fertilizer producers and the impact of geopolitical developments on the cost side.

DAP Price Index:

According to FDD data calculations, on September 22, the mainstream 64% granular DAP index in China was 4,563.33, unchanged from the previous working day. The 60% brown DAP index was 4,600.00, also unchanged, while the 57% grade index was 4,287.50, likewise unchanged.

DAP Market Analysis:

Today's domestic DAP market was stable to weak. On the producer side, some companies were mainly focused on orders awaiting shipment, keeping prices firm while spot transactions remained subject to negotiation. On the market side, trading sentiment improved somewhat. On the demand side, as the autumn fertilizer stockpiling window gradually approaches, grassroots demand is being released step by step. Cargo circulation has improved from earlier levels and trading sentiment has shown signs of recovery, but purchases remain concentrated in small essential orders and large-scale procurement has not yet begun. On the raw-material side, domestic sulfur prices consolidated within a narrow range today, sulfur port inventories remained relatively low overall, sulfuric acid prices moved lower and the phosphate-rock market was mainly stable. Raw-material prices on the cost side all declined, but remained relatively high and continued to provide strong support for the market. Overall, the DAP market is expected to consolidate within a narrow range in the short term. Attention should remain on raw-material price movements, downstream demand follow-through and subsequent changes to export policy.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to FDD data calculations, on September 22, the price of granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was RMB 7,200/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day. The price of granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was RMB 7,180/tonne, unchanged. The price of powdered/lump sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was RMB 7,150/tonne, unchanged. The price of powdered/lump sulfur at Dafeng Port was RMB 7,130/tonne, unchanged. East China's solid sulfur price was RMB 7,200/tonne, down RMB 200/tonne from the previous working day, while East China's liquid sulfur price was RMB 7,325/tonne, down RMB 105/tonne.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Outlook:

Today's domestic spot sulfur market generally consolidated within a narrow range. Regional spot-market trends diverged. Some markets saw a rebound yesterday, and some traders followed by raising offers, improving sentiment in certain areas. On the supply side, upstream producers became less willing to release cargo, while a small number of production units reduced operating rates. Overall cargo availability declined, providing some support for the rebound. Port offers showed an intention to move higher today, but downstream buyers were clearly seeking lower prices. Differences between buyers and sellers became apparent, while overall trading activity did not expand accordingly and only sporadic small-lot transactions were recorded. Shandong liquid sulfur continued to trade at high levels following yesterday's rebound. After the rapid rise, downstream resistance to high prices became increasingly evident, procurement willingness weakened and some high-priced cargo went unsold, increasing resistance to further gains. As the market fluctuated, the mindsets of buyers and sellers gradually returned to rationality. Sellers were willing to push quotations higher, while downstream buyers remained cautious because of cost pressure, leading to clear differences between industrial and trading participants over target prices. Overall, the momentum for further upward attempts in the sulfur market has weakened in the short term. If the price divergence between supply and demand cannot be effectively resolved, the market is likely to enter a stalemate and consolidate. Attention should remain on changes in upstream plant operations, the pace of port arrivals and actual raw-material restocking by downstream phosphate-fertilizer producers.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

September 22: The Anhui MAP market's delivered price for 55% powder was around RMB 3,950-4,050/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 22: The Northeast MAP market's delivered price for 55% powder was around RMB 4,200-4,230/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 22: The Henan MAP market's delivered price for 55% powder was RMB 3,900-4,000/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 22: The mainstream ex-works price for 55% powdered MAP in Hubei was around RMB 3,800-3,900/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 22: The Jiangsu MAP market's delivered price for 55% powder was RMB 3,900-4,000/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 22: The Shandong MAP market's delivered quotation for 55% powder was around RMB 3,950-4,150/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 22: The Sichuan MAP market's delivered quotation for 55% powder was around RMB 3,800-3,900/tonne, with quotations lowered.

September 22: The Yunnan MAP market's ex-works quotation for 55% powder was around RMB 3,900-3,900/tonne, with quotations lowered.

September 22: The Shaanxi market's ex-plant pickup quotation for 60% DAP was RMB 4,500-4,650/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 22: The Northeast market's ex-plant pickup quotation for 64% DAP was RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 22: The Hebei market's station pickup quotation for 57% DAP was RMB 4,250-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 22: The Hubei market's ex-plant pickup quotation for 64% DAP was RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 22: The Shandong market's ex-warehouse pickup quotation for 64% DAP was RMB 4,850-4,950/tonne, with quotations stable; the station pickup quotation for 57% DAP was RMB 4,250-4,350/tonne, also with quotations stable.