September 29 Pesticide Daily: Prices Hold Steady as the Market Waits for Direction

The pesticide market is generally fluctuating on a firm note, and market sentiment has improved, although downstream buyers continue to purchase mainly for essential needs. Several products have recently received strong support from higher costs, while various factors have tightened supply, producing pronounced short-term price increases. However, because cost increases are not transmitted smoothly along the industrial chain, higher prices may also trigger negative feedback from downstream users, and the market is waiting to see whether end-user demand can absorb the increases. Geopolitical conditions in the Middle East remain volatile. Although negotiations between the United States and Iran are anticipated, the path toward an agreement remains difficult in practice. Shipping risks at the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, two critical chokepoints, remain elevated. As a result, cost support for the petrochemical industry is unlikely to collapse rapidly in the short term. Nevertheless, as expectations of a ceasefire gradually build, the market is broadly following a peak-and-pullback pattern. Overall, caution persists. Some products have risen markedly, but other categories have shown limited follow-through, resulting in clear divergence across the market and a sustained wait-and-see atmosphere. Going forward, attention should focus on shifts in geopolitical sentiment, export momentum and seasonal demand.

Market Analysis

Herbicides: The herbicide market is showing signs of stabilization and recovery overall. Major products, including glufosinate and glyphosate, have experienced supply-side improvement as feedstock prices increased. Cost pressure arising from geopolitical risks is becoming more apparent, although the market is still looking for additional demand-side drivers. Glufosinate prices have jumped sharply in recent weeks, mainly because tight production and price increases in feedstock intermediates, together with international political developments, have affected supply. The market is closely monitoring transaction activity and the sustainability of the rally after the sharp price increase, while substitute products have also begun to follow the upward move. Overall, most downstream buyers continue to take cargo only for essential needs, and demand-side follow-through remains cautious.

Yellow Phosphorus: Yellow phosphorus market prices were broadly stable today. Producers are currently focused on shipping existing orders. Earlier sales were relatively strong, gradually easing inventory-clearing pressure, while the tight spot supply situation has not yet been fully reversed. Upstream producers therefore retain the conditions needed to defend prices and may limit sales volumes after prices stabilize. Downstream buyers, however, continue to make moderate purchases for essential needs. Because the scope for pre-holiday restocking is relatively limited, the market is mainly monitoring demand follow-through after the recent price increases.

Pesticide Market Price Overview

Insecticides

Technical-grade lambda-cyhalothrin (96%) rose by RMB 2,000 to RMB 108,000/mt. Technical-grade bifenthrin (96%) rose by RMB 2,000 to RMB 128,000/mt. Technical-grade imidacloprid (97%) rose by RMB 2,000 to RMB 72,000/mt. Technical-grade acetamiprid (97%) rose by RMB 1,000 to RMB 59,000/mt. Technical-grade thiamethoxam (96%) rose by RMB 1,000 to RMB 55,000/mt. Technical-grade nitenpyram (97%) rose by RMB 7,000 to RMB 120,000/mt. Technical-grade pymetrozine (97%) rose by RMB 1,000 to RMB 95,000/mt. Technical-grade dinotefuran (97%) rose by RMB 5,000 to RMB 125,000/mt.

Fungicides

Technical-grade tebuconazole (97%) rose by RMB 2,000 to RMB 49,000/mt. Technical-grade azoxystrobin (98%) fell by RMB 4,000 to RMB 116,000/mt. Technical-grade fludioxonil (98%) fell by RMB 5,000 to RMB 485,000/mt.