Urea Daily Review: Moderate Market Transactions Atmosphere, Prices Remain Stable

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to the estimation by Feidoodoo data, on March 7th, the price index of urea granules was 2344.36, a decrease of 5.91 from the previous day, down by 0.25% from the day before, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.80%.

Urea Futures Market:

Today's opening price for the urea UR405 contract was 2210, with a high of 2213, a low of 2178, a settlement price of 2191, and a closing price of 2183. The closing price decreased by 13 compared to the settlement price of the previous trading day, down by 0.59%, with a daily fluctuation range of 2178-2213. The basis in the Shandong area for the 05 contract was 87; today, the 05 contract reduced its positions by 1119 hands, with a current holding of 173963 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, domestic urea market prices slightly decreased, with manufacturers' quotations showing a slight downward adjustment, the pace of goods moving in the market slowed, and the market operated with fluctuations.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region were stable at 2330-2390 yuan/ton. Prices in the North China region fell to 2150-2410 yuan/ton. Prices in the East China region fell to 2260-2310 yuan/ton. Prices in the South China region remained stable at 2380-2450 yuan/ton. In the Central China region, the price of small granules rose to 2280-2400 yuan/ton, while the price of large granules remained stable at 2340-2400 yuan/ton. Prices in the Northwest region remained stable at 2310-2320 yuan/ton. Prices in the Southwest region remained stable at 2300-2600 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast:

From the factory's perspective, most manufacturers' quotations remain stable, temporarily fulfilling pending orders, with a reduction in supply expectations, leading to a firm price and a reluctant sales mindset. From the market perspective, there is no progress in export news, and the industry's confidence in its positive impact on the market is limited. Additionally, after a round of immediate demand replenishment in the previous period, the industry's acceptance of high prices has declined. On the supply side, although daily production has slightly decreased, it still maintains a level above 180,000 tons, keeping the supply side ample. In terms of demand, agricultural procurement is in the spring plowing season, with a significant emotional impact on procurement; the capacity utilization rate of industrial compound fertilizer factories still has room for improvement, compound fertilizer sales are good, and the purchasing capacity for raw materials is gradually increasing, with the positive impact of industrial demand awaiting continuous release.

In summary, current urea manufacturers are reluctant to sell and firm in their pricing, with positive demand-side effects gradually emerging. Current follow-up is limited, and the mindset is mostly wait-and-see, anticipating urea market prices to fluctuate and adjust in the short term.