Urea Daily Review: Weak Market Conditions Persist, Pre-Holiday Atmosphere Unchanged

June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM

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Highlights at a glance

The UR405 urea futures contract opened at 2146 today, reaching a high of 2162 and a low of 2123, with a closing price of 2148—up 15 points (0.70%) from the previous day—and settled at 2144. Open interest rose by 4,457 contracts to 178,300, while the Shandong basis for the 05 contract stood at +32. Domestically, urea spot prices remained largely stable, with slight regional increases in North, East, Central, and Northwest China, while the Northeast and South saw no change. Small-particle urea in Central China saw notable price hikes. Market activity has slowed ahead of the holiday, with most factories maintaining stable quotes supported by prior orders. Supply remains ample as production rises, but demand is weakening due to downstream shutdowns, leaving only sporadic agricultural purchases. The market is effectively in a holiday lull—characterized by limited trading and price stability. Overall, weak but steady conditions are expected to persist in the near term.

Urea Futures Market:

The opening price for the UR405 urea contract today was 2146, with a high of 2162, a low of 2123, a settlement price of 2144, and a closing price of 2148. Compared to the previous trading day, the closing price increased by 15, representing a 0.70% increase. The full-day fluctuation ranged from 2123 to 2162. The basis difference for the 05 contract in Shandong Province was 32. Today, there was an increase in open positions of 4457 contracts, with a total open interest of 178,300 contracts as of now.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, domestic urea market prices remained stable, with enterprise quotations adjusting slightly and the market continuing in a stable trend.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region remained stable at 2190-2270 yuan per ton. Prices in North China rose to 2070-2280 yuan per ton. Prices in East China increased to 2170-2240 yuan per ton. Prices in South China remained stable at 2350-2400 yuan per ton. Prices in Central China for small particles rose to 2190-2380 yuan per ton, while prices for large particles remained stable at 2240-2320 yuan per ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2220-2230 yuan per ton. Prices in Southwest China remained stable at 2230-2600 yuan per ton.

Future Market Forecast:

Regarding factories, many have completed pre-holiday order receipts, and with support from pending shipments, current factory quotations remain stable with minor adjustments. As for the market, it has also entered a holiday atmosphere and is currently in a state of pricelessness and marketlessness, with the current market situation being relatively stable. On the supply side, daily production continues to rise, while demand remains weak, leading to continued ample supply. In terms of demand, downstream businesses are gradually shutting down for the holiday, with sporadic replenishment only for agricultural needs, indicating weak demand.

Overall, the pre-holiday market continues to exhibit weak market conditions, with prices mostly stable, and it is expected that urea market prices will continue to remain stable in the short term.

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