July 15 International Forex News

China’s GDP Grew 4.7% Year-on-Year in the First Half of 2026

July 15: The National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that, according to preliminary estimates, China’s gross domestic product in the first half of the year reached RMB 69.5704 trillion, up 4.7% year-on-year at constant prices.

By quarter, GDP grew 5.0% year-on-year in the first quarter and 4.3% in the second quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP grew 0.9% in the second quarter.
Source: People’s Daily

CICC: Baseline View Remains No Fed Rate Hike This Year, but the Threshold for Hikes Has Declined

July 15: CICC said in a research report that U.S. June CPI fell 0.4% month-on-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, while the year-on-year increase eased to 3.5%. Core CPI was flat month-on-month and rose 2.6% year-on-year, both below market expectations. Falling energy prices were the main reason for the cooling in inflation.

Looking ahead, the renewed escalation of the U.S.-Iran situation means the outlook for energy inflation remains volatile. At the same time, the inflationary effects of AI are gradually emerging. Supply-demand mismatches in upstream hardware, price increases in software and peripheral products, and AI-driven capital expenditure boosting aggregate demand could all make core inflation more sticky.

For policy, the cooling in June inflation supports the Fed keeping rates unchanged at its July meeting. However, Waller’s recent comments indicate that the Fed is reassessing the possibility of “preventive rate hikes.” CICC maintains its baseline view that there will be no rate hikes this year, but notes that the threshold for rate hikes has already declined. If one or two overheated inflation readings appear, they could prompt the Fed to further discuss the option of raising rates.

CITIC Securities: U.S. June CPI Broadly Below Expectations; Fed Still Expected to Stay on Hold This Year

July 15: CITIC Securities said in a research report that U.S. June CPI was broadly below expectations. Retail gasoline prices declined, core services were flat month-on-month, and secondary inflation effects remained weak.

CITIC Securities believes U.S. inflation is not highly sticky. Headline CPI year-on-year growth has confirmed that it has passed the peak of this cycle. It is expected to trend moderately lower in the third quarter and bottom in September, then rise to a secondary high by year-end before falling rapidly again in March next year.

CITIC Securities still expects the Fed to remain on hold throughout this year. Rate-hike expectations priced into derivatives still have room to be revised lower. U.S. Treasuries are currently not suitable for allocation opportunities, short-duration bonds are preferable to long-duration bonds, the U.S. dollar index is unlikely to keep rising sharply but remains supported, and the technology theme in U.S. equities remains attractive.