Pesticide Daily Review, July 14: Upstream and Downstream Divergence Re-Emerges

The pesticide market remained broadly weak in sentiment, with downstream buyers mainly following up based on rigid demand. Market drivers were insufficient, and the cost-upside logic driven by geopolitical tensions slowed as geopolitical risks cooled. Some products still had support from phased supply-demand mismatches, but due to transmission issues along the industrial chain, downstream negative feedback caused by high prices continued to emerge. The market is temporarily waiting to see whether terminal demand can provide further absorption.

International trade flows toward China again came under expectation pressure from the U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duty policy outlook on Chinese glyphosate, creating some sentiment pressure on the domestic market. However, the actual investigation still requires continued tracking, and for now the impact is limited to restraining exports to the United States, while other trade flows will still depend on external demand strength.

In addition, the Middle East geopolitical situation has shown signs of easing. The United States and Iran have preliminarily signed a memorandum of understanding, leading to a sharp pullback in the geopolitical risk premium. However, the market is still watching for substantive restoration of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, while supply damage in the petrochemical industrial chain remains irreversible in the short term. Cost-side drivers may slow, but bottom support may still exist.

Overall, market caution persists. Price increases in some upstream products continue to face resistance in downstream transmission, upward momentum has paused, and the wait-and-see atmosphere remains evident. Going forward, attention should be paid to geopolitical sentiment changes, export strength, and seasonal demand.

Market Analysis

Herbicides

The herbicide market atmosphere continued to weaken. Earlier inventory accumulation among traders led to some low-price selling. Although cost pressure caused by geopolitical risks still exists, expectations have eased after the general direction of peace became tentatively established, and insufficient demand absorption has failed to provide new drivers.

Meanwhile, the U.S. invocation of the Defense Production Act to list elemental phosphorus and glyphosate herbicides as critical defense materials, requiring priority protection of domestic supply, continues to provide some support to the domestic market. However, news that Monsanto requested the United States to impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese glyphosate has weighed on domestic market sentiment.

Overall, downstream buyers are mainly purchasing based on rigid demand. After short-term seasonal demand support weakened, market sentiment continued to soften. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether export conditions can improve and to changes in geopolitical sentiment.

Yellow Phosphorus

Today, the yellow phosphorus market showed signs of stabilization overall. After the previous sustained price decline brought prices close to cost levels, upstream producers gradually showed reluctance to sell at low prices, creating a certain price-supporting atmosphere in the broader market.

After prices moved lower and further adjustment room became limited, downstream purchasing enthusiasm also improved to some extent. However, the cautious wait-and-see attitude in the market remains difficult to fully reverse.

In the short term, the market is expected to maintain a cautious wait-and-see stance. Although the yellow phosphorus market has shown signs of stopping its decline and stabilizing, attention still needs to be paid to the sustainability and strength of buying interest, as well as changes in expectations for price recovery space.

Pesticide Market Price Overview

Herbicides

95% glyphosate fell by RMB 500 to RMB 26,500/tonne;

98% 2,4-D fell by RMB 500 to RMB 15,000/tonne;

95% glufosinate rose by RMB 500 to RMB 50,500/tonne;

95% nicosulfuron fell by RMB 5,000 to RMB 155,000/tonne;

97% cyhalofop-butyl fell by RMB 3,000 to RMB 102,000/tonne;

85% quinclorac fell by RMB 3,000 to RMB 102,000/tonne, 100% basis;

97% diuron fell by RMB 3,000 to RMB 42,000/tonne.

Insecticides

95% fipronil fell by RMB 25,000 to RMB 350,000/tonne;

95% abamectin technical powder fell by RMB 10,000 to RMB 370,000/tonne;

70% emamectin benzoate fell by RMB 10,000 to RMB 560,000/tonne;

97% lufenuron fell by RMB 2,000 to RMB 118,000/tonne;

96% chlorantraniliprole rose by RMB 5,000 to RMB 215,000/tonne.

Fungicides

97% tebuconazole rose by RMB 1,000 to RMB 48,000/tonne;

95% tricyclazole fell by RMB 2,000 to RMB 66,000/tonne;

97% carbendazim fell by RMB 1,000 to RMB 35,000/tonne;

97% iprodione fell by RMB 3,000 to RMB 195,000/tonne.