July 27 Pesticide Daily Review: Volatile Divergence

The pesticide market as a whole remained weak in sentiment. Downstream procurement was mainly driven by rigid demand, market momentum was insufficient, and the cost-support logic eased somewhat as geopolitical tensions cooled. Some products still received support from temporary supply-demand mismatches, but due to transmission issues along the industrial chain, high prices continued to trigger negative feedback from downstream buyers. The market is waiting to see whether terminal demand can provide stronger support. In international trade flows, China again faced pressure from expected U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing policies on glyphosate, which weighed to some extent on domestic market sentiment. However, the actual investigation still needs continued follow-up, and the current impact is limited to restraining exports to the U.S.; other trade flows still depend on external demand. In addition, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have tightened again. With the U.S. and Iran both declaring a return to a wartime posture and the Strait of Hormuz reportedly blocked again, market concerns have resurfaced. Damage to supply in the petrochemical chain remains largely irreversible in the short term, so bottom support may still exist. Overall, cautious sentiment remains dominant. Price increases in some upstream products continue to face transmission resistance downstream, upward momentum has paused, and a wait-and-see atmosphere persists. Follow-up attention should focus on geopolitical shifts, export demand, and seasonal demand.

Market Analysis

Herbicides: The herbicide market sentiment continues to weaken. Earlier inventory accumulation among traders has led to some low-price selling. Although cost support from geopolitical risks still exists, expectations have eased after the broader peace narrative stabilized, and insufficient downstream demand has failed to provide a new driver. In the U.S., the invocation of the Defense Production Act to classify elemental phosphorus and glyphosate herbicides as defense-critical materials and prioritize domestic supply continues to provide some support for the domestic market. However, news that Monsanto is calling for anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese glyphosate has again dampened domestic sentiment. Overall, downstream buyers remain focused on rigid-demand purchases. With seasonal demand support weakening in the short term, market sentiment continues to soften. Follow-up attention should be paid to whether export issues improve and whether geopolitical sentiment changes.

Yellow Phosphorus: Today, the yellow phosphorus market saw a slight overall recovery. After prices had continued to fall and moved close to cost levels, upstream producers showed increasingly clear reluctance to sell at low prices, creating a degree of price-support sentiment in the market. As downside room narrowed after the price decline, downstream purchasing enthusiasm also improved somewhat. However, the cautious wait-and-see attitude in the market has still not fully reversed. After phased replenishment, downstream buyers are mainly digesting raw materials from existing orders for now, and rigid-demand procurement remains only a limited market driver. In the short term, the yellow phosphorus market has stabilized after the decline. Although there has been a slight rebound, attention should still be paid to whether demand support can continue and how that affects expectations for price recovery room.

Pesticide Price Overview

Herbicides: 97% Fluroxypyr, down RMB 4,000 to RMB 72,000/tonne, 96% Bispyribac-sodium, down RMB 5,000 to RMB 210,000/tonne; 97% Diuron, down RMB 2,000 to RMB 40,000/tonne.

Insecticides: 97% Imidacloprid, down RMB 1,000 to RMB 72,000/tonne, 97% Acetamiprid, down RMB 2,000 to RMB 58,000/tonne; 97% Nitenpyram, down RMB 5,000 to RMB 116,000/tonne; 97% Chlorfenapyr, down RMB 2,000 to RMB 118,000/tonne; 95% Abamectin technical, down RMB 10,000 to RMB 360,000/tonne; 97% Spirodiclofen, down RMB 5,000 to RMB 125,000/tonne; 96% Etoxazole, down RMB 10,000 to RMB 140,000/tonne; 94% Profenofos, down RMB 5,000 to RMB 50,000/tonne; 97% Acephate, up RMB 3,000 to RMB 37,000/tonne; 98% Acephate, up RMB 3,000 to RMB 38,000/tonne; 95% (9:1) Indoxacarb, down RMB 20,000 to RMB 430,000/tonne; 96% Chlorantraniliprole, up RMB 5,000 to RMB 220,000/tonne.

Fungicides: 97% Pyraclostrobin, down RMB 5,000 to RMB 125,000/tonne, 97% Hymexazol, down RMB 5,000 to RMB 75,000/tonne; 98% Metalaxyl, down RMB 2,000 to RMB 98,000/tonne.