Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review, July 27: Costs and Demand Remain in a Tug of War, Phosphate Fertilizer Market Continues to Consolidate

MAP Price Index:

According to FDD data calculations, on July 27, China’s domestic 55% powder MAP index was 4,423.75, flat from the previous working day; the 55% granular MAP index was 4,450.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 58% powder MAP index was 4,710.00, flat from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, China’s domestic MAP market operated weakly.

Enterprise side，Most plants are still executing previous orders. Raw material prices are operating at high levels, traders continue to hold firm sentiment, and actual transactions remain under negotiation.

Market side，Current market sentiment is characterized by sellers holding firm but under pressure, buyers remaining cautious and wait-and-see, and traders reluctant to sell while waiting for prices to rise.

Demand side，Some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are only maintaining small-volume procurement for rigid demand. Purchasing enthusiasm is weak, new order follow-up is insufficient, the market center has moved slightly lower within a narrow range, and sentiment remains cautious.

Raw material side，Over the weekend, a ceasefire took place on the U.S.-Iran battlefield. Geopolitical tensions cooled somewhat, but fundamental differences have not been eliminated. Navigation risks through the Strait of Hormuz still exist, continuing to bring expectations of potential supply disruption to the international sulfur market. Domestic sulfur prices fluctuated weakly today, while port inventories continued to run at low levels. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained high and stable, keeping cost-side pressure strong.

Overall，Supported by high costs, the MAP market is expected to continue weak consolidation in the short term. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price trends, the pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn stocking, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to the cost side.

DAP Price Index:

According to FDD data calculations, on July 27, China’s domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP index was 4,571.67, flat from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP index was 4,350.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 57% DAP index was 4,432.50, flat from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, China’s domestic DAP market continued to consolidate with a wait-and-see tone.

Enterprise side，Some producers are mainly focused on shipping previous pending orders. Market prices have not changed significantly. Raw material prices continue to rise, providing a solid foundation for market prices, while actual transactions remain under negotiation.

Market side，Market wait-and-see sentiment remains strong.

Demand side，Downstream procurement remains sluggish. Downstream compound fertilizer plants mostly maintain low operating rates, purchasing willingness is generally weak, and downstream buyers only make scattered inquiries. Actual order follow-up is relatively limited, overall trading activity is low, and transactions are unable to form effective volume.

Raw material side，Over the weekend, a ceasefire took place on the U.S.-Iran battlefield. Geopolitical tensions cooled somewhat, but fundamental differences have not been eliminated. Navigation risks through the Strait of Hormuz still exist, continuing to bring expectations of potential supply disruption to the international sulfur market. Domestic sulfur prices fluctuated weakly today, while port inventories continued to run at low levels. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained high and stable. Raw material costs remain elevated, cost pressure continues to intensify, and this provides strong support to the market.

Overall，The DAP market is expected to maintain a consolidation pattern in the short term. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price changes, downstream demand follow-up, and later export policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to FDD data calculations, on July 27, domestic Zhenjiang Port granular sulfur was priced at 9,180.00, down 0.05% from the previous working day; Dafeng Port granular sulfur was priced at 9,160.00, down 0.05% from the previous working day; Zhenjiang Port powder/block sulfur was priced at 9,130.00, down 0.05% from the previous working day; Dafeng Port powder/block sulfur was priced at 9,110.00, down 0.05% from the previous working day; East China solid sulfur was priced at 8,965.00, down 3.60% from the previous working day; and East China liquid sulfur was priced at 9,180.00, down 0.43% from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, China’s domestic sulfur market showed divergent regional trends, while overall trading remained light. Port quotations for imported granular sulfur remained in a stalemate. Market participants held strong wait-and-see sentiment, buying and selling interest was limited, and only scattered small orders were concluded. During negotiations, buyers continued to press prices lower, while cargo holders maintained strong price-support sentiment, and the market center moved slightly lower. For domestic solid sulfur, downstream purchasing willingness in Northwest China weakened, and support for high-priced cargoes loosened.

Liquid sulfur showed clear differences. Shandong liquid sulfur prices had fallen continuously earlier, and the market atmosphere was weak. After prices fell to low levels, downstream buyers were attracted to purchase at lower prices, and some premiums appeared in auctions. In the afternoon, the market focused on follow-up transactions for liquid sulfur and port cargoes.

On the geopolitical side, the current U.S.-Iran conflict has entered a phased pause, but fundamental differences have not been eliminated. Navigation risks through the Strait of Hormuz still exist, continuing to bring expectations of potential supply disruption to the international sulfur market and providing sentiment support for domestic prices.

However, the fundamentals lack effective demand support. Downstream phosphate fertilizer enterprises are constrained by finished product market conditions and remain cautious about purchasing high-priced raw materials, making it difficult to form sustained concentrated replenishment. Supply and demand have not changed materially. Market transactions are concentrated among a small number of merchants, while many participants choose to hold cash and wait for directional guidance.

Outlook: In the short term, sulfur spot prices are likely to remain rangebound in consolidation. Uncertainty around Middle East geopolitics and variables in the replenishment pace of imported cargoes provide sentiment support for the market, limiting room for a deep price correction. However, weak downstream demand suppresses upside, making a unilateral trend unlikely. Follow-up attention should focus on changes in shipping through the strait, the arrival progress of imported vessels and cargoes, and procurement release in the phosphate fertilizer supply chain after autumn storage starts in August. The market is waiting for key signals to emerge.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

July 27: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,500-4,530/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 27: In the Northeast MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,250-4,250/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 27: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,480-4,530/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 27: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream 55% powder ex-factory prices were around RMB 4,200-4,450/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 27: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,520-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 27: In the Shandong MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,500-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 27: In the Sichuan MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 27: In the Yunnan MAP market, 55% powder ex-factory prices were around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 27: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 27: In Northeast China, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 27: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup prices were RMB 4,420-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 27: In Hubei, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 27: In Shandong, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-warehouse prices were RMB 4,900-5,000/tonne, with quotations raised; 57% DAP self-pickup station prices were RMB 4,450-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.