Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review, July 14: Strong Cost Support Keeps Market Stable at High Levels

Monoammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on July 14, the domestic monoammonium phosphate 55% powder index stood at 4,435.00, flat from the previous working day; the 55% granular index stood at 4,450.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 58% powder index stood at 4,710.00, flat from the previous working day.

Monoammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market continued to operate steadily.

On the enterprise side, most plants were still executing previous orders, with no significant changes in market prices. Raw material prices remained high, traders maintained a firm mindset, and actual transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

On the market side, current sentiment is characterized by sellers remaining firm but constrained, buyers staying cautious and watchful, and traders holding goods while waiting for further price increases.

On the demand side, downstream compound fertilizer plants are currently operating at low loads. Some enterprises have already completed part of their raw material procurement, while willingness to purchase at high prices remains weak. Actual procurement is mainly limited to small-volume need-based purchases, with sentiment relatively cautious.

On the raw material side, regarding geopolitics, the U.S.-Iran conflict continued. The United States announced the resumption of a maritime blockade on traffic to Iranian ports. U.S. President Donald Trump later stated that a 20% protection fee would be charged on all goods transported through the Strait of Hormuz. This continued to provide cost and sentiment support to the domestic sulfur market. Domestic sulfur prices moved higher at elevated levels, while port inventories remained low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained firm at high levels. Cost-side pressure continued to increase, and enterprises maintained a strong willingness to hold prices firm.

Overall, supported by costs and pending orders, the monoammonium phosphate market is expected to remain stable at high levels in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn preparation, and the impact of sulfur market movements on cost transmission following the signing of the U.S.-Iran agreement.

Diammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on July 14, the domestic mainstream diammonium phosphate 64% granular index stood at 4,571.67, flat from the previous working day; the 60% brown index stood at 4,350.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 57% content index stood at 4,432.50, flat from the previous working day.

Diammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, the domestic diammonium phosphate market operated in consolidation.

On the enterprise side, some producers mainly focused on shipping previous pending orders, with no significant changes in market prices. Market sentiment toward holding prices firm remained strong, and actual transactions continued to be negotiated.

On the market side, wait-and-see sentiment remained strong.

On the demand side, performance remained relatively muted. Demand is still in the traditional fertilizer-use gap period, and domestic autumn sowing preparation has not yet started on a concentrated basis. Downstream compound fertilizer plants are mostly operating at low rates, with procurement limited to small-volume daily rigid-demand replenishment. Grassroots distributors remain strongly wait-and-see, and overall trading activity is stagnant and relatively light.

On the raw material side, regarding geopolitics, the U.S.-Iran conflict continued. The United States announced the resumption of a maritime blockade on traffic to Iranian ports. U.S. President Donald Trump later stated that a 20% protection fee would be charged on all goods transported through the Strait of Hormuz. This continued to provide cost and sentiment support to the domestic sulfur market. Domestic sulfur prices moved higher at elevated levels, while port inventories remained low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained firm at high levels. High raw material prices continued to increase cost pressure, providing strong support to the market.

Overall, the diammonium phosphate market is expected to continue high-level consolidation in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to raw material price changes, downstream demand follow-up, and later export policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices

According to FDD data, on July 14, the domestic Zhenjiang Port granular sulfur price stood at 9,200.00, up 2.22% from the previous working day; Dafeng Port granular sulfur stood at 9,180.00, up 2.23%; Zhenjiang Port powder/block sulfur stood at 9,150.00, up 2.23%; Dafeng Port powder/block sulfur stood at 9,130.00, up 2.24%; East China solid sulfur stood at 9,030.00, flat from the previous working day; and East China liquid sulfur stood at 8,980.00, up 0.67%.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, the domestic sulfur market continued to operate firmly at high levels and moved higher in volatile trading. Overall bullish sentiment was strong, and the market center rose steadily.

The core driver of this round of gains came from external geopolitical disruptions. The U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict continued to intensify, key shipping straits were again restricted, and circulation in the international sulfur supply chain was disrupted. Import arrivals and transportation schedules came under pressure, providing sustained geopolitical premium support to the domestic market.

Driven by positive external sentiment, overall domestic market sentiment strengthened. Holders maintained firm offering attitudes and showed limited willingness to make concessions.

For imported granular sulfur, market prices had already entered an upward channel yesterday, trading activity improved, and multiple spot transactions were concluded. Today, the port spot market continued to rise. In the morning, high-offer sentiment was evident. In the early stage, downstream buyers mostly remained cautious and wait-and-see, making tentative purchases at lower levels. After low-priced cargoes became scarce, procurement sentiment recovered, and buyers passively moved higher to take cargoes. This drove continued follow-up in port spot transactions. Afternoon trading continued, the mainstream transaction center remained firm, and the overall market maintained a strong upward pattern.

At this stage, spot cargoes available for circulation at ports are relatively limited. Most holders have chosen to wait and hold prices firm, showing reluctance to sell while waiting for further gains, which further supports market prices at high levels.

The domestic sulfur market strengthened in regional linkage, generally showing high-level volatility and broad regional gains. The Shandong liquid sulfur market operated at high levels, with auction transactions performing well and solid fundamental support. Liquid sulfur prices in Northwest and Northeast China also rose. Regional trading sentiment continued to recover, downstream rigid-demand procurement enthusiasm improved noticeably, industrial and trading enterprises increased participation, regional cargo circulation was smooth, and transaction centers moved steadily higher. Markets across regions strengthened simultaneously, and overall rigid-demand acceptance improved.

On the demand side, supported by ongoing geopolitical positive sentiment, downstream industries saw a recovery in stocking sentiment, reversing the previous cautious wait-and-see stance. The pace of need-based replenishment accelerated, effectively absorbing upstream high-priced cargoes and supporting continued expansion in market transactions. Although some buyers still adopted a wait-and-see stance amid high port offers, overall buying resilience remained acceptable, providing fundamental support for continued market strength.

Market outlook: In the short term, supply-side disruptions caused by the U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict are expected to continue, and the tight international sulfur circulation pattern is unlikely to ease quickly. Bullish market sentiment is expected to persist. Supported by external positives, tight cargo availability, and recovering rigid demand, the domestic spot market is expected to continue high-level fluctuations with slight upward movement during the day. Going forward, attention should be paid to the progress of Strait shipping recovery, port cargo arrivals, the sustainability of regional spot transactions, and downstream replenishment strength. If buying follow-up remains stable, the market may rise further. If transaction follow-up weakens, high-level consolidation may be needed.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates

July 14: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,550/tonne delivered, with quotations stable.

July 14: In the Northeast MAP market, 55% powder was quoted at around RMB 4,250-4,250/tonne delivered, with quotations stable.

July 14: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,550/tonne delivered, with quotations stable.

July 14: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream ex-factory prices for 55% powder were around RMB 4,200-4,450/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 14: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder was quoted at around RMB 4,520-4,500/tonne delivered, with quotations stable.

July 14: In the Shandong MAP market, delivered quotations for 55% powder were around RMB 4,530-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 14: In the Sichuan MAP market, delivered quotations for 55% powder were around RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 14: In the Yunnan MAP market, ex-factory prices for 55% powder were around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 14: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 14: In Northeast China, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 14: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup quotations were RMB 4,420-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 14: In Hubei, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 14: In Shandong, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-warehouse quotations were RMB 4,900-4,980/tonne, with quotations stable; 57% self-pickup station quotations were RMB 4,450-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.