Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review, July 30: Geopolitical Disruptions Keep Cost Support Intact, Downstream Wait-and-See Sentiment Leaves Phosphate Fertilizer Trading Light

MAP Price Index:

According to FDD data calculations, on July 30, China’s domestic 55% powder MAP index was 4,423.75, flat from the previous working day; the 55% granular MAP index was 4,450.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 58% powder MAP index was 4,710.00, flat from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, China’s domestic MAP market operated steadily with a weak bias.Enterprise side，Most plants are still executing previous orders. Today, prices for 55% content declined slightly, and actual transactions remained under negotiation.Market side, Current market sentiment is characterized by sellers holding firm but under pressure, buyers remaining cautious and wait-and-see, and traders reluctant to sell while waiting for prices to rise.Demand side, Some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are only maintaining small-volume procurement for rigid demand. Purchasing enthusiasm is weak, raw material stocking enthusiasm is low, new order transactions are limited, the market center has moved slightly lower within a narrow range, and sentiment remains cautious.Raw material side, Today, the Middle East geopolitical situation continued to deteriorate. Iran launched missile attacks on U.S. military bases in Jordan, and the U.S. immediately responded forcefully, further expanding the scope of the conflict. Shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz continue to exist. Domestic sulfur prices remained high in a stalemate and consolidation today, with divergent trends. Recently, imported sulfur arrivals and inventories have risen slightly, but overall inventories remain relatively low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated weakly, with the price center moving lower. Phosphate rock prices remained high and stable, and cost-side support remained relatively strong.Overall, Supported by high costs, the MAP market is expected to continue weak operation in the short term. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price trends, the pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn stocking, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to the cost side.

DAP Price Index:

According to FDD data calculations, on July 30, China’s domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP index was 4,571.67, flat from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP index was 4,350.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 57% DAP index was 4,432.50, flat from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, China’s domestic DAP market remained in wait-and-see operation.Enterprise side, Some producers are mainly focused on shipping previous pending orders. Market prices have not changed significantly. Raw material prices continue to rise, providing a solid foundation for market prices, while actual transactions remain under negotiation.Market side, Market wait-and-see sentiment remains strong.Demand side, Downstream procurement remains sluggish. Downstream compound fertilizer plants mostly maintain low operating rates, purchasing willingness is generally weak, and downstream buyers only make scattered inquiries. Actual order follow-up is relatively limited, overall trading activity is low, and transactions are unable to form effective volume.Raw material side, Today, the Middle East geopolitical situation continued to deteriorate. Iran launched missile attacks on U.S. military bases in Jordan, and the U.S. immediately responded forcefully, further expanding the scope of the conflict. Shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz continue to exist. Domestic sulfur prices remained high in a stalemate and consolidation today, with divergent trends. Recently, imported sulfur arrivals and inventories have risen slightly, but overall inventories remain relatively low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated weakly, with the price center moving lower. Phosphate rock prices remained high and stable. Raw material costs remain elevated, cost pressure continues to intensify, and this provides strong support to the market.Overall, The DAP market is expected to continue consolidation with a wait-and-see tone in the short term. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price changes, downstream demand follow-up, and later export policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to FDD data calculations, on July 30, domestic Zhenjiang Port granular sulfur was priced at 9,170.00, flat from the previous working day; Dafeng Port granular sulfur was priced at 9,150.00, flat from the previous working day; Zhenjiang Port powder/block sulfur was priced at 9,120.00, flat from the previous working day; Dafeng Port powder/block sulfur was priced at 9,100.00, flat from the previous working day; East China solid sulfur was priced at 9,300.00, flat from the previous working day; and East China liquid sulfur was priced at 9,220.00, flat from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, China’s domestic sulfur market showed regional divergence and a high-level stalemate. The Middle East geopolitical situation continued to deteriorate, further intensifying disruptions to the global sulfur supply chain. Iran first launched missile attacks on U.S. military bases in Jordan, and the U.S. then carried out airstrikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island, Kish Island, and other locations, spreading the Middle East situation to a broader area.

As the core chokepoint for global sulfur seaborne trade, shipping security through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be threatened. Multiple Middle Eastern refineries have stopped production due to war damage, long-term contract vessels are generally delayed, and port inventory accumulation in August is likely to be lower than expected. Although Russia has lifted its rail transit ban on Kazakh sulfur, transport recovery will still take time, and the short-term impact is limited.

Bulk granular sulfur transaction prices at Yangtze River ports remained stable, but after several days of market weakness, the market lacked directional guidance and participants mostly remained cautious and wait-and-see. For domestic solid sulfur, Northwest China continued shipments.

Shandong liquid sulfur performed relatively well. Prices rose sharply after several days at low levels. Tight regional supply combined with rigid-demand support led to expanded transaction volume and widespread premiums. However, after prices returned to high levels, follow-up enthusiasm declined and the auction atmosphere weakened. In Northwest China, auction volume decreased, and the focus was on stabilizing the market and shipping cargoes. Northeast liquid sulfur prices remained stable.

The overall market is in a stalemate of “sellers reluctant to sell and buyers rejecting high prices.” Looking ahead, the sulfur market is likely to continue high-level narrow-range fluctuations in the short term. Geopolitical conflict is unlikely to be resolved quickly, and the supply shortage is difficult to fundamentally improve. However, downstream acceptance of high-priced raw materials is limited, and high prices are suppressing demand.

Follow-up attention should focus on the direction of Middle East geopolitical developments, the actual pace of supply recovery after the lifting of Kazakhstan’s transit ban, and the substantive demand boost from autumn fertilizer stocking. Before supply-side recovery is verified, sulfur prices are expected to maintain resilience at high levels, but upside room is constrained by weak demand. Market participants are advised to closely monitor easing signals and guard against the risk of premium pullback.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

July 30: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,500-4,530/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 30: In the Northeast MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,250-4,250/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 30: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,430-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 30: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream 55% powder ex-factory prices were around RMB 4,350-4,450/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 30: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,520-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 30: In the Shandong MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,450-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 30: In the Sichuan MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 30: In the Yunnan MAP market, 55% powder ex-factory prices were around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 30: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 30: In Northeast China, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 30: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup prices were RMB 4,420-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 30: In Hubei, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 30: In Shandong, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-warehouse prices were RMB 4,900-5,000/tonne, with quotations stable; 57% DAP self-pickup station prices were RMB 4,450-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.