Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Review: Continued Bullish Sentiment for MAP, DAP Export Orders in Progress

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis

Price Analysis:

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP):
According to Feidoodoo data, this week:

• The 55% powdered MAP price index averaged 3013.50, up by 58.00, a 1.96% increase from last week.
• The 55% granular MAP price index averaged 3080.00, up by 6.00, a 0.20% increase from last week.
• The 58% powdered MAP price index averaged 3326.67, up by 53.33, a 1.63% increase from last week.

This week, domestic MAP prices continued to rise, driven by a bullish market atmosphere and sustained high transaction focus. Enterprises faced large pending orders and tight spot supply, leading many to stop taking new orders and focus on fulfilling existing ones. The market remained optimistic, with limited available stock pushing prices higher. Supply gradually improved as some facilities resumed production. Agricultural demand for summer fertilizers is winding down, and high prices limited transactions, with downstream buyers maintaining just-in-time restocking.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP):
According to Feidoodoo data, this week:

• The 64% granular DAP price index averaged 3778.67, down by 10.67, a 0.28% decrease from last week.
• The 60% brown DAP price index remained stable at 3450.00.
• The 57% DAP price index averaged 3392.50, down by 27.00, a 0.79% decrease from last week.

Domestic DAP prices saw slight declines, with a focus on executing export orders. Domestic just-in-time demand was limited, leading to a steady decline in prices. Enterprises prioritized export orders, which are expected to continue into the next month. The industry maintained high operational rates with firm quotes, while market sentiment remained cautious, resulting in weak transaction activity.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operational Rates

MAP Industry:
According to Feidoodoo data:

• This week, the operating rate for the domestic MAP industry was about 51.09%, up by 3.21% from last week, and 17.49% higher year-on-year.

DAP Industry:
According to Feidoodoo data:

• This week, the operating rate for the domestic DAP industry was about 52.52%, down by 0.85% from last week, but 12.51% higher year-on-year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Production Trends

MAP Production:
According to Feidoodoo data:

• This week, domestic MAP production was about 199,500 tons, up by 6.68% from last week, and 52.06% higher year-on-year.

DAP Production:
According to Feidoodoo data:

• This week, domestic DAP production was about 253,700 tons, down by 1.25% from last week, but 28.33% higher year-on-year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trends

MAP Port Inventory:
According to Feidoodoo data:

• This week, the main port inventory for domestic MAP was about 55,000 tons, stable from last week, but down by 58.96% year-on-year.

DAP Port Inventory:
According to Feidoodoo data:

• This week, the main port inventory for domestic DAP was about 82,000 tons, stable from last week, but down by 52.90% year-on-year.

Market Forecast

MAP:
Overall, MAP enterprises continue to limit new orders and focus on fulfilling pending ones, maintaining firm quotes due to strong demand and tight supply. Prices are expected to remain high with potential for further increases in the short term.

DAP:
Overall, the DAP market continues to operate weakly, focusing on executing export orders. Domestic demand remains limited, and prices are expected to continue to show slight declines, maintaining overall firmness in the short term.